With the Ukraine, Russia story, but today we are moving away
from the immediate battlefield and looking at the impact it's
made elsewhere, because it's
the most cataclysmic global event
since the end of the Cold War
and it's affecting every country, not just
in the immediate region.
All the more in the immediate region said
the Middle East and Europe.
But across the country because they because the event
is like that old enemies are trying to become friends now old
friends are discussed discovering new areas
of strains and conflicts of interest.
Old and lies today see that their interests lie
on different sides and everybody is balancing
and everybody's moving so I will give you
a summary of that.
It's quite a fascinating picture see at this point if UAE
and Turkey are coming closer until the other day they were
like at each other's throats, UAE and Turkey are coming closer
Turkey is going out and saying nice things
about Egypt and improving its relations
with Israel, Israel, Egypt, Turkey, these are countries
that Erdogan has been beating up on all this while also
to drum up his local support because his friends had been
in the Islamic Brotherhood. Now he has.
He has broken away at this point
from Muslim Brotherhood and rediscovered new friendships
with UAE Israel and Egypt. In fact as we speak.
Israeli president that is Mr. Herzog has just visited Ankara.
So that tells you that there's
a big change going on in that region.
Why because Turkey has interest on both sides.
Turkey has interests in Russia and it has interest
in the West because it's a member of NATO.
Turkey also has an ax to grind in Syria
in Syria sometimes starts and the Russians give space
to each other, sometimes they have issues
also between each other after all.
We've seen some really major issues between Turkey
and Russia in Syria lately in 2015.
A Russian aircraft is a koi was shot
down by Turkish missiles in 2016.
The Russian ambassador in Turkey in Ankara was
assassinated in 2034 Turkish soldiers were
killed in a Russian airstrike in Syria.
Even after that the 2 countries continue
talking not just that Turkey
because Turkey place this very sophisticated game remember only
3% of Turkish territory and 10% of its population is
in Europe, but Turkey is a member of NATO
so key values its NATO membership.
Turkey also is home for a bunch of nuclear weapons
later nuclear weapons stored there so Turkey, in a way
a shopping on both sides of the street so Turkey is
with NATO Turkey at the same time wants
to be friends with Russia. It's a neighboring country.
It depends on Russian gas.
A lot of, a lot of the gas that Turkey needs
comes from Russia in a pipeline that is pretty
much owned by Gazprom.
The Russian campaign now whose value just became zero
on international stock exchanges and Turkey has also bought S
400 missile systems from Russia.
The same system that India's buying
although Turkey has has faced American sanctions
as a result of that.
Despite being a NATO country now.
Turkey has figured that they cannot keep fighting
with Israel at the same time
and they cannot be fighting with the middle Eastern world
with at the same time now. What else has happened.
I will tell you this is not, this is not the only big chains
right now.
Other changes.
The talks with Iran that Americans are having
Americans and the rest of the JSE poor
talks in Vienna and are now proceeding
at a much more rapid pace, all these things are
interconnected RL draw some interconnections for you cutter
as we had spoken about in an earlier cut
the clutter Cutler has recently been given a major non-NATO ally
status by the Americans.
That's also happening in the Middle East
and remember all this while Cutler was at odds
with UAE in Saudi Arabia.
At the same time and I read this
in the Wall Street Journal of this morning and I will share
a link with you.
You can read the entire story, it seems that both the ruler
or the crown prince of Saudi Arabia,
the de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman
and the ruler of UAE have both refused
to accept phone call from Biden
but but both have spoken with Putin, both have spoken
with Zelensky also, but they have avoided calls
from Biden because one they are irritated with America
because they think Americans are moving too fast into restoring
Jesse poor with Iran. They don't like Iran.
In fact the differently dislike Iran more than they dislike
Turkey at the same time they are also worried that Biden may put
pressure on them to start pumping out more oil,
because at the bottom of all this immediately is
also the global oil prices because for oil producing
nations high prices are good money in fact you are today
looking at a complex situation where it suits Russia if oil
prices go up because that is all.
Russia has got to sell, but provided Russia is able
to sell so Russia has to balance that they want high
oil prices.
But they also don't want sanctions whereby they can't
sell so to avoid sanctions if they lowered
the tempo of the war, or if they make peace
with Ukraine then global oil prices start
going down because then you're back
to normal.
So Russia has to balance this balance their
interest between high oil prices and between the ability to
and cash those high prices then Russia's closest friend
right now China China may see a lot of strategic benefit
in getting Russia to fight America getting America
to fight Russia.
It's like the example I use all the time, it's a bit
like in old days there racing saying to any global challenger
in his kinds of wrestling
that better you are sending me a challenge before that fight
with my brother on Tower.
So that is exactly what China is doing
to the Americans and the best right now,
you want to challenge me tomorrow for global supremacy
fight with my my younger brother Mr.
Randhawa first if you can get the better
of him then whatever is left
for you battered and wounded. You can come and face up to me.
So at the same time for the Chinese oil price is
going up like this is a disaster, because China is
as much an oil importing country as India is if you see India
on the other hand, India has dependence
on Russia for military equipment India cannot break
off immediately and India cannot be
a part of the sanctions situation bird
if Russia continues to be in such a crisis,
it's a big threat to India.
At the same time India imports 80% of its oil and gas.
That price is going up and it's already it's already
creating the specter of hyper not hyperinflation
but high inflation in India.
Oil companies adjust to global prices.
Similarly, you will find but Turkey the largest number
of tourists in Turkey come
from Russia to see some of the things that Turkey has
done in this case and that's a fascinating story
in terms of how countries are making
adjustments with this situation.
One, on the positive side for the West for its Western
allies in NATO it is selling those drones to Ukraine
which is making a big difference
in the blog we spoke about than Barack there just
yesterday Erdogan visited Kiev, a day after the Russian
government recognize the sovereignty
of Luhansk and Donetsk right so they've kept their equations
with the Ukrainians as well too.
They have blocked the Bosporus
and Dardanelles invoking the 1,936 Monto convention
and at the same time while they're talking nicely
to the Russians they are selling where actor drones to the euro
Ukrainians.
They are not sanctioning Russia but they are blocking
the streets for Russian ships
at the same time, at the same time see
while he is maintaining his relations is talking Putin
because he needs to sustain its friendship
with all his working relationship or cynical working
relationship with Russia. His ambassador at the UN.
See the adjectives used his use about the Russian action this is
illegal illicit unacceptable unjust baseless unprecedented
in history.
All these are adjectives is used about the Russian invasion
of Ukraine.
I think all the possible diplomatic abuses,
have been used except Captain headaches
vegetarian maybe.
So this is the tightrope that Turkey is walking
and you can see why they are doing it
in fact now.
Turkey has also organized the first meeting
since the conflict began between the Russian foreign
minister, that is.
Sergei Lavrov and Ukrainian foreign Minister
that is the Matrix labor in southern Turkey
that will be the first meetings
with that is how that is out.
Turkey is managing it would Putin.
In fact, it said in the past, Putin and Erdogan
like each other.
That's why they've been able to manage money crisis
between them, which also despite the fact
that these resulted in military losses to them.
Putin advanced said about Erdogan.
This is a person who keeps his word.
A man. So these are people who think differently.
These are all strongmen leaders also level at some place
at at a personal level as well.
Now see Israel: Israel is the most most fascinating story
Naftali Bennett, the Israeli prime minister,
was among the first to go flying into Moscow,
he did so on his Sabbath right on his birth a conventional
traditional Jewish person or leader will not go
out on work but so he broke his Shabbat came
to came to Moscow on a Saturday
because he had to fly over Turkish airspace,
he also informed Erdogan that it was going
in there now again Turkey and Israel hasn't had
the best of ties lately, but once again in this crisis.
I told you enemies become friends and friends discover new
areas of conflict.
So he came into Moscow from Moscow.
He went to Germany.
He would not have come to Moscow without checking
with the Americans.
He went to Germany to meet Chancellor Charles.
Then he went back and he's been trying
to play the honest broker there that is getting a lot
of criticism within Israel and in fact,
at the same time he sent yeah Lockheed who is his foreign
minister to Lithuania to meet Anthony blink
in the US Secretary of State there
so Israel is also trying
to balance it what is Israel's panic in this,
what is the fish that Israel has got to fry him this.
Israel is concerned about Iran, Israel has the same concern is
this, in this case SA say UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Although in their case.
It gets more complicated because both are caught in this
awful war in Yemen and both have been recipients
of attacks from Shia militias or shear forces supported
by Iran particularly UAE recently when they had those
missile attacks from the Houthis
in Yemen and they need more support from the Americans,
but they are insecure and they most insecure paranoid
about Iran becoming legit again Iran, by the way, is the most
silent country and all this
because they know the both sides
of their blood bread and butter that this point
so Israel Israel's concern also is one that they should not
be a quick settlement with Iran because they are
really paranoid about Iran if UAE
and Saudi Arabia worried about Iran, Israel is paranoid.
It's also a big issue in Israeli domestic politics,
with the Russians also Israelis have
an axe to grind because Israelis send
out their assets particularly air force to go into Syrian
territory to bomb the pro-Iranian militias
and terrorist organizations and their assets, they can only
do it with the tacit approval of the Russians who control
the airspace and it's in fact it's
the Russians who also then prevail
upon the Syrians not to use against Israeli aircraft
the S-300 missile systems that the Russians have given
them those can be very effective and quite deadly so Israel
also has these multiple interest but the big interest.
They also if Iran in fact within Israel.
There's a lot of criticism
of how the government is handling this.
I read an article in inherits
and that article quotes Yuri miss Gov who says court we are
walking on eggshells and trying to protect
Vladimir Putin's inflated owner and it goes on to say,
instead of hanging up on a psychopathic ruthless
dictator Israel is acting like a Russian client state.
Now this is strong criticism but you know where Israel's
government is coming from and and Leon who's
a former director general of foreign affairs in Israel.
He has said.
Just because we have to bomb Syria
once or twice a week doesn't mean
that we have to submit to all of Putin's demands
like this or suck up to put it like this.
So once again, that shows you
the conflict of interest that Israel has
then look at UAE I told you about UAE worrying worrying
about who 3 attacks because they have there is
insecure about who things they are very
very insecure about Iran and that's one
of the reasons they are irritated because today
if anybody can up the output of oil quickly
it's UAE and Saudi Arabia, but both are not doing it
because both don't want to help the Americans
and NATO to relax.
Both want the pressure to be on.
So somehow the motivation to settle quickly
with Iran goes away because if Iran becomes legit
again and sanctions are lifted then Iran's power
in the middle, East, particularly
with Shia militias and Shia communities will
also go higher and higher, and by the way you way is
the largest investor in Russia, in fact almost 80% of foreign
investments in Russia comes from UAE.
So that has its own impact as well.
Now look at the state of the world and see
how East country is responding to this in faraway Venezuela
because Americans now realize that they have, they cannot
sanction all oil producing countries
in the world because that's too cruel
and the rest of the world essential Venezuela
the largest oil reserves in the world you sanction Iran
you know sanction Russia so will the rest
of the world go particular your allies like India
for example or Europe or even in America: every speech
of Joe Biden's he talks about distress or pain
that American people have to face at the gas pump.
Right so nobody wants prices go up, so that's the reason they
are.