Kevin, they're they're not gonna raise rates.
Where to where you went?
Well, the market take over.
Well, what's what will then happen?
Joe is that we'll have inflation in the six 7%
range for a few years,
right? And that's not necessarily really bad.
It's not necessarily really bad for markets.
'cause remember, prices move faster than wages,
so profits won't look everyone in
that we supposedly care about.
And that Democrats care. Republicans don't,
but I think everybody cares about those people.
Yeah, you're right, you're right.
So so it's a. It's a sad fear for years.
Like the 70s. Yeah, it's definitely bad.
Which is why, you know Chairman has said it would be moving right now and moving much deeper.
Yeah, what where do you think?
How far do you think they have the?
I mean is it feet of clay?
How far? How far do you think Jay Powell is willing to go?
You know, I think that one of the things that we've seen over the last few years is that every time the Fed hiccups,
then the market goes crazy and the move the Fed has to make right now is pretty big and so I don't think it's imprudent to have the first couple
of moves. Be kind of small and cautious just to make sure that there
isn't some kind
of weird, you know,
new normal where the market really overreacts to.
Every little fed move, but then after you get a couple of quarter point moves without causing a panic.
And then they have to start moving at 50 basis points.
So so I guess that that would be my outlook would be that we'd have a couple of quarter point moves,
and then we'd be looking at 50 basis points for the
rest of the year. Hey Kevin,
why? Why should they care if the market overreacts or or doesn't want them to do this?
I mean, if it's if it's what needs to be done,
maybe the markets what needs to be brought along,
not the Fed kowtowing to the market.
Yeah, it's
it's a totally fairpoint, you know I I think that Greenspan was the first Fed chair that started pointing to market.
But the problem is that if the market panics and all of a sudden you're looking at,
you know 1020% declines. Then that can have an economic effect itself and you can sort of miss the soft landing.
And so I think the what the Fed people are open is that they can get interest rates up a little bit at a
time without causing the market panic and get us to like a more sustainable.
Jeffrey, without causing a recession.
And frankly, if they do that,
I'll be shocked. I think there won't be able to do that.
I think that they're gonna go too slow at the beginning.
Inflation is going to continue to accelerate.
Its running almost 10% right now and then.
They're gonna have to hit the economy with a hammer and then the market will respond and have a recession.
So that's the most likely.